Abstract: Under a multi-level government structure, the promotion of grassroots civil servants is restricted, and the problem of “section chief rank ceiling” is more common. This paper collected the resume data of 106 grassroots civil servants in L Ethnic Autonomous County, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, deeply coded them, and introduced a survival analysis method for analysis to examine the influences of factors such as personal information, educational experience and work information on the career development of grassroots civil servants. As found by this study: there is a critical promotion period for grassroots civil servants; promotion of grassroots civil servants emphasizes the identity of Party members and educational experience; after entering the civil service system for a certain period of time, there may be a promotion bottleneck. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended to improve the promotion mechanism and promote the career development of grassroots civil servants from three perspectives, including evaluation system, promotion channel, and condition creation.

Key words: Grassroots civil servants, Promotion, Resume data, Survival analysis

摘要： 多层级的政府结构下,基层公务员晋升受到限制,“科级天花板”问题较为普遍。文章收集了广西壮族自治区L少数民族自治县的106位基层公务员的履历数据,对其进行深度编码,并引入生存分析法进行分析,以考察个人信息、教育经历和工作信息等因素对基层公务员职业阶段发展的影响。研究发现：基层公务员存在晋升关键期;基层公务员晋升注重党员身份和教育经历;在进入公务员体制一定时间后,会出现晋升瓶颈。基于研究结论,文章建议从评价体系、晋升渠道和创造条件三个角度完善晋升机制,以促进基层公务员职业发展。

关键词: 基层公务员, 晋升, 履历数据, 生存分析